Enter how many encounters you have done and the calculator shows your chance of having found a shiny by now.
It uses the verified odds from the ShinyHunt Wiki, including the Shiny Charm and the Masuda Method.
Each encounter is an independent roll. The chance of at least one shiny after N encounters is 1 minus the chance of missing every time: 1 − (1 − p)^N, where p is the odds per encounter. This calculator does that for you.
Generations 2 to 5 use 1 in 8,192. Generation 6 onwards uses 1 in 4,096. Pick a game above to see its methods and boosted rates.
Yes, in most games from Gen 5 onward, where it adds extra shiny rolls. It does not help every method (for example gifts and some chains), so the toggle only appears when the Charm applies to the method you picked.
The average is just the midpoint of a wide spread. After the average number of encounters you still have a real chance of having found nothing. The 90% and 95% rows show how many it takes to be that confident.
Some methods, such as the DexNav, have a chance that changes with your chain and Search Level, so a single odds figure would be misleading. The Wiki guide explains how they work.